The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to facilitate hostage and prisoner release was holding, raising hopes that hostilities would soon ebb and ease the pressure on economies and the markets.

Indian and the US stocks rose for the fourth straight week as markets do not expect any interest rate hikes in the United States or India.

Indian markets will remain shut on Monday, with stocks likely to rise due to positive sentiment and inflows. Bonds are likely to move in a narrow range before the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy review to be held Dec 6 to Dec 8 next month.

Indian Markets Last Week:

Stocks ended higher for the fourth straight week thanks to gains in automobile and pharma shares. The auto index hit a record high this week. Strong domestic inflows, including from retail investors, expectations that US interest rates have peaked, and prospects for strong earnings growth lifted Indian shares. Pharma shares rose on the view that profit margins will be high.

Yields rose slightly this week after falling sharply last week owing to some profit sales, a rise in US yields, and lower-than-expected demand at the weekly bond sale. Strong domestic cues were absent. This trend will likely continue till the RBI monetary policy review on Dec 8.

The rupee weakened a little but closed at another record low in lacklustre trade. There was strong demand from oil companies, but state-owned banks sold the greenback for the RBI to keep the rupee's fall in check. The dollar index was little changed following the US holiday for Thanksgiving.

Global Markets Last Week:

US stocks saw their fourth consecutive weekly gains last week in holiday-shortened trading sessions. Investors were waiting for signs of consumer resilience to show itself as the holiday shopping season began. On Friday, the S&P 500 ended flat, while the Dow barely managed to make any ground. Mega cap momentum stocks went down, which dragged the Nasdaq slightly down.

Treasury yields rose last week on optimism about Federal Reserve rate cuts sooner than expected in 2024 ebbed. This is because the US economy remained resilient. The view was that the recent rally in bond prices was overdone. Yields fell 10 days ago after softer-than-expected inflation data ignited market hopes that the Fed may cut rates by the first half of 2024.

The US dollar fell against major currencies due to steady US business activity in November and lacklustre trade after the US Thanksgiving Holiday. The private sector employment declined, indicating a fourth-quarter economic slowdown. S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index remains unchanged at 50.7, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next year.

Corporate Bonds

Bond Issuances Of The Past Week

• Canara Bank raised ₹50 billion via Tier-II bonds at 7.68⁒.
• SIDBI raised ₹48.87 billion via 5-year bonds at 7.83⁒.
• Rural Electrification Corp raised ₹28.99 billion via 10-year bonds at 7.71⁒.
• Indian Railway Finance Corp raised ₹24.04 billion via 36-month bonds at 7.68⁒.
• Rural Electrification Corp raised ₹16.79 billion via 2-year 6-month bonds at 7.80⁒.
• Tata Capital Financial Services raised ₹30 billion via 1151-day NCDs at 8.10⁒.
• GMR Airports raised ₹19.50 billion via 3-year NCDs at 13.275⁒ with a 5⁒ cash coupon and 8.275⁒ as redemption coupon per annum.
• Bajaj Finance raised ₹5 billion via 9-year 10-month NCDs at 7.88⁒.
• Shriram Finance raised ₹3.25 billion via 5-year NCDs at 8.90⁒.
• Shriram Housing Finance raised ₹2.5 billion via 10-year NCDs at 9.25⁒.
• DMI Finance raised ₹2 billion via 633-day NCDs at 9.75⁒.

Secondary Market

Yields rose for shorter tenure bonds up to five years last week after several primary issuances. However, 10-year yields rose by 2-3 basis points, tracking a marginal uptick in government bond yields. Mutual funds sold bonds up to 3-year, and banks were turned net-buyers.

Outlook For This Week

Indian markets will be closed on Monday.

For the remainder of the week, stocks will likely rise amidst upbeat sentiment and strong inflows. Indian bonds will likely move in a narrow range, with any price rise triggering profit sales. Big cues are expected only from the RBI's MPC review next month. The rupee is likely to move in a narrow range.

In Other News

• Israel-Hamas war: First group of Israeli hostages released
• Drilling snags delay rescue of 41 men trapped in Indian tunnel
• Sebi proposes easing trading plans for company insiders
• Hindenburg report no 'holy grail': Supreme Court backs Sebi's Adani probe
• India, European Union sign MoU on semiconductor research and innovation
• Asia Gold Indian dealers widen discounts as wedding season demand slows
• Wager on four IPOs exceeds Rs 2 trn; Tata Tech subscribed nearly 70 times
• NPS adoption by govt employees hit 6-month high in September: NSO data
• India's forex exchange reserves rise to 11-week high of $595 billion
• Unsecured personal loans jumped 4-fold to Rs 13.3 trn from FY17 to FY23
• FinMin calls a meeting of bankers to deal with digital payment fraud

News Events This, Next week

• Nov 27: US New Residential Sales for October.
• Nov 27: India- Financial Market closed on account of Guru Nanak Jayanti.
• Nov 28: US Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for Nov 25 week.
• Nov 28: US Quarterly House Price Index.
• Nov 28: US Monthly House Price Index for September.
• Nov 28: US Consumer Confidence Index for November.
• Nov 28: US API Weekly Statistical Bulletin for Nov 24 week.
• Nov 29: US 2nd estimate GDP for Q3.
• Nov 29: US Preliminary Corporate Profits for Q3.
• Nov 29: US Advance Economic Indicators Report for October.
• Nov 29: US EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for Nov 24 week.
• Nov 29: India M3 Money Supply YoY for Nov 17 week.
• Nov 30: US Weekly Export Sales.
• Nov 30: US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for Nov 25.
• Nov 30: US Pending Home Sales Index for October.
• Nov 30: US Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment for October.
• Nov 30: US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for Nov 24 week.
• Nov 30: US Monthly Retail Chain Store Sales Index for November.
• Nov 30: US Agricultural Prices for October.
• Nov 30: US Foreign Central Bank Holdings
• Nov 30: US Federal Discount Window Borrowings
• Nov 30 India Government Budget Value for October.
• Nov 30: India Infrastructure Output YoY for October.
• Nov 30: India GDP Growth Rate YoY for Q3.
• Dec 1: US Manufacturing PMI for November.
• Dec 1: US ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI for November.
• Dec 1: US Construction Spending for October.
• Dec 1: US Global Manufacturing PMI for November.
• Dec 1: US Domestic Auto Industry Sales for November.